№ 06 · 2030

Outlook 2030.

consensus · upside · base case

The institutional decade has already begun.

It is rare for the major consultancies to converge on a directional forecast. They have converged on this one. BCG: $16T tokenised by 2030. Citi: $4–5T. McKinsey: $2T base, $4T bull. Ark Invest: $11T. Standard Chartered: $30.1T by 2034. The aggregate consensus is that on-chain assets cross from a single-digit percentage of global financial volume into 10% of global GDP in this decade.

№ 06-A

Five published forecasts.

side-by-side
$2TMcKinsey base · 2030$4T bull
$4–5TCiti · 2030debt + RE + PE
$11TArk Invest · 2030Big Ideas
$16TBCG × ADDX · 203010% of global GDP
$30.1TStandard Chartered · 2034incl. $5T trade finance

Treat the dispersion as a feature, not a bug. Even the most conservative forecast — McKinsey's $2 trillion base case — is a ~60× expansion on the $33.9 billion of tokenised RWA outstanding in late 2025. The most aggressive is a thousand-fold. The market is not arguing about whether to go; it is arguing about how fast.

McKinsey via CoinDesk · Citi via Cointelegraph · Ark via The Block · BCG × ADDX · Standard Chartered.

№ 06-B

Four structural drivers, compounding.

policy · cost · access · automation

1. Regulatory closure in the world's two largest blocs.

MiCA across the 30-country EEA is in full enforcement as of mid-2026. The GENIUS Act has given the US its first federal stablecoin framework and removed the security-classification overhang for compliant issuers. The UK, Singapore, UAE, Hong Kong and Switzerland have each shipped adjacent or more permissive regimes. Institutional compliance has a place to live in every major jurisdiction.

2. The cost-of-issuance collapse.

The marginal cost of issuing a tokenised security has fallen by something close to two orders of magnitude over five years. Distribution that previously required underwriting syndicates, prospectuses, exchange listings, and transfer-agent infrastructure now requires a permissioned smart-contract deployment. That single delta unlocks a long tail of issuance — mid-market private credit, trade-finance pools, fund-of-funds — that traditional infrastructure could never make economic.

3. Twenty-four-hour, T+0 settlement is becoming a baseline expectation.

Once a buy-side desk has experienced T+0 settlement, the latency tolerance for T+1 collapses. The pull-through effect is starting to drag the rest of the stack — equity, FX, fixed income — into on-chain or chain-adjacent settlement. This is the single change in market microstructure that historically reorders the league table.

4. AI-native operational infrastructure.

The protocols designed in 2020 cannot retrofit a continuous AI audit. The protocols designed in 2026 — and built for the regulatory horizon of 2030 — assume one. That is the entire imyo AI-audit architecture: the security model the institutional decade actually requires.

№ 06-C

Where ımyo sits in the curve.

positioning · share · roadmap

The DeFi lending category holds $39 billion of deposits as of July 2026 — down from a $54 billion April peak through the post-Kelp deleveraging, yet still roughly double its level of eighteen months ago. Aave V3 leads with $13.3B, followed by Morpho Blue ($7.2B) — which overtook SparkLend ($3.6B) during the drawdown — then JustLend ($3.3B) and Maple ($2.3B). The category is open enough that the fastest-growing venue of 2025 — Maple's Syrup — went from $500m to $4B without dislodging incumbents.

ımyo's addressable share is not the existing TVL. It is the regulated capital that has yet to enter the category: asset-manager balance sheets, corporate treasuries, family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and credit funds that have, until now, lacked a venue they could underwrite as a counter-party. That pool is several orders of magnitude larger than the entire current DeFi lending category.

Our base assumption is that the institutional share of DeFi lending crosses 30% by 2030. On a category that scales with tokenised asset growth, that single share number puts the regulated venue at the top of the table by AUM. ımyo is engineered specifically for that segment.

№ 06-D

The next twenty-four months.

milestones
  • Q3 2026 — Mainnet. Sui and Ethereum silos launched. Tier 1 collateral (BUIDL, qualified stablecoins) live from day one. Initial allowlist of institutional borrowers.
  • Q4 2026 — Tier 2 unlock. Tokenised commercial paper and short-dated IG corporate bonds added as collateral. T+0 reporting API GA.
  • H1 2027 — Tier 3 and ZK-credit. Tokenised private credit pools onboarded. ZK-credit scoring for under-collateralised lending to top-tier institutions.
  • H2 2027 — Cross-jurisdiction passport. MiCA-licensed entry point for EEA institutions; equivalent permissions in the US, Singapore and UAE.
  • 2028 — Settlement integrations. Direct connectivity with DTCC, SWIFT-via-bridge, and tokenised cash networks. T+0 becomes a default.
№ 06-E

Be in the first cohort.

allowlist

The curve compounds. The cohort matters.

The first institutional users will shape policy, risk parameters, and the order book.

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